Economic Survey outlines blueprint to achieve Modi’s dream of $5 trillion economy
NEW DELHI: A day before the Union Budget is presented, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today tabled the Economic Survey 2018-19, prepared by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, in the Parliament. The Economic Survey projects the state of health of the Indian economy and outlines the challenges.
The Indian economy is at a 5-year low of 6.8% in 2018-19 and the fourth quarter growth has slumped to 5.8% which is a 17-quarter low.
Live Updates of Economic Survey 2018-19:
2:20 pm: We will be sticking to the fiscal path which has been laid out; if private investment has to increase, it cannot be allowed to be crowded out by public investment: CEA Subramanian.
2:12 pm: The Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), Bibek Debroy, welcomed the Economic Survey’s emphasis on fiscal consolidation and fiscal discipline and investments, especially private investments, as the growth driver.
2:12 pm: Let private investment increase, this will make firms more productive, bringing jobs and increasing exports, making firms able to compete in international markets; this will increase demand and further investment: CEA.
2:11 pm: Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the Economic Survey 2019 outlines a vision to achieve a $5 trillion economy. “It also depicts the gains from advancement in the social sector, adoption of technology and energy security,” PM Modi tweeted.
2:06 pm: NITI Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said the Economic Survey reflects the government’s resolve to maintain fiscal stability while pushing up GDP growth rates by measures to accelerate private investment. He said the report provides a comprehensive and clear picture of economic trends & challenges ahead.
2:04 pm: China and East Asia have grown by increasing investment which enhanced productivity; they pursued export-driven model which enabled them to compete in international markets – CEA.
2:04 pm: Filling existing judicial vacancies and improving productivity improvements in courts can address key hurdle of delays in contract enforcement and dispute resolution: CEA
1:57 pm: Subramanian makes the case for the potential of data as a public good; governments need to invest in this the same way as they build roads for the welfare of people.
1:55 pm: India to develop as EV manufacturing hub like Detriot : Economic Survey
1:55 pm: Labour reforms undertaken by Rajasthan provide evidence for the potential of labour deregulation in enabling higher growth: CEA
1:51 pm: Firms that over time grow large are significant contributors to employment and value; need more focus on firms to reap economies of scale, rather than on firms which remain slow despite their age: CEA
1:47 pm: The Economic Survey shows that those states which were rigid in respect of their labour laws have not only suffered in all dimensions but have also been unable to create enough employment. These states have also failed to attract adequate capital investment which is necessary for job creation.
1:46 pm: The Economic Survey of India for the year 2018-19 tabled in Parliament on Thursday has suggested deregulation of labour laws to create more jobs in the country.
1:45 pm: The Indian industry and infrastructure sector’s real challenge is to bring in adequate private investment in collaboration with the public sector, said the Economic Survey 2018-19.
1:44 pm: Beti Bachao Beti Padhao scheme has led to improvement in sex ratio at birth: CEA
1:44 pm: Inflation rate has moved to a more stable and low level in the last five fiscals, and controlling price surge remains a key policy focus area of the government, Economic Survey for 2018-19 said.
1:43 pm: Swachh Bharat has contributed to improved health outcomes in a very significant way: CEA
1:42 pm: Economic Survey 2019 argues for an ambitious agenda for social change, treating humans as humans, relying on the lessons offered by behavioural economics.
1:40 pm: In the next two decades, we will be able to avail the benefits of demographic change, which will enable us to grow in a sustained manner at 8%: CEA
1:39pm: Chief Economic Advisor Dr KV Subramanian said this year’s survey makes two key departures from traditional economic thinking: Economics of equilibrium and economics of silos.
1:37 pm: As the India economy started doing better, China started savings and investing more; India needs to learn from this and adopt a virtuous cycle: Subramanian
1:36 pm: 5 ways Economic Survey 2019 is different from previous ones: Blue sky thinking, Behavioural economics, Data – the new oil, Nursing dwarfs to become giants, How to deal with an ageing society.
1:34 pm: KV Subramanian on Economic Survey 2018-19: In an uncertain world in which we all work, there are 3 key elements critical for ensuring that policies really help in reaching common people. First, a vision that has already been provided by the PM, of a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024-25.
1:33 pm: In a press conference, Subramanian lists out structural achievements in last five years saying that the economy is now poised for a takeoff.
1:32 pm: “As electric vehicles represent the next generation in sustainable mobility, India must emphasise on them. Currently, the market share of electric cars is only 0.06 per cent when compared to 2 per cent in China and 39 per cent in Norway: Economic Survey.
1:31 pm: Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian on #EconomicSurvey 2018-19: Theme that underlies this economic survey is, the sky blue colour, the colour used for the survey, captures unfettered blue sky thinking which is what we’ve indulged in trying to come with the idea for this survey.
1:29 pm: Subramanian’s team has also created videos to explain the ideas behind the economic survey. These videos, in English and Hindi, are on YouTube.
1:28 pm: Economic Survey has two volumes, like earlier years: Subramanian
1:26 pm: Need to shift gears for 8% growth rate: Subramanian
1:25 pm: This year’s economic survey makes a concerted effort to lay out a strategic blueprint laid down by Prime Minister: Chief Economic Advisor Dr KV Subramanian
1:24 pm: An effective minimum wage policy that targets the vulnerable bottom rung of wage earners can help in driving up aggregate demand and building and strengthening the middle class: Economic Survey.
1:23 pm: Success of MGNREGS shows government schemes can make a substantial difference on the ground when skilful use of technology is combined with monitoring of effectiveness: Survey.
1:15 pm: India will enjoy the “demographic dividend” phase in the next two decades but some states will start transitioning to an ageing society by the 2030s: Economic Survey.
1:14 pm: Growth in current fiscal to be driven by investment, consumption
1:12 pm: Low pay and wage inequality remain serious obstacles towards achieving inclusive growth.
1:10 pm: Economic Survey flags need to prepare for ageing of the population; this necessitates more healthcare investment, increasing retirement age in a phased manner.
1:06 pm: Rural Inflation (CPI) declined during FY 2018-19; many states witnessed fall in CPI Inflation during FY 2018-19.
1:05 pm: The survey highlights need for a robust and resilient Infrastructure to Create a $10 trillion economy by 2032.
1 pm: Economic Survey pegs services sector to grow at 7.5% for 2018-19.
12:56 pm: Themes of Economic Survey 2018-19: Shifting gears towards making India a $5 trillion economy, “Blue Sky Thinking” – new ideas for policymaking, blueprint for a sustained growth rate of 8%, Behavioral ‘nudges’ to design and deliver optimal outcomes, policies to unshackle MSMEs to grow, create jobs and enhance productivity, data as a public good ” of the people, for the people and by the people”, Legal reform, policy consistency, efficient labour markets and use of technology are focus areas.
12:53 pm: The survey also lays out an ambitious agenda for behavioural change including gender equality, a healthy & beautiful India, savings, tax compliance and credit quality.
12:50 pm: Decline in NPAs should help push Capex cycle, says Economic Survey 2019
12:45 pm: Pick-up in investments to help job creation says Economic Survey 2019.
12:40 pm: Economic Survey is presented to enable common citizens to understand its ideas and thereby their role in making India a $5 trillion economy.
12:36 pm: Forex reserves projected at $412.9 billion for the fiscal 2018-19.
12:31 pm: The cover design of “inter-linked gears” captures the idea of investment, savings, exports, growth and jobs being complementary and therefore forming components of a “Virtuous Cycle” with investment as the key driver: CEA Subramanian.
12:26 pm: CEA Subramanian said the economic survey is imbued by the spirit “blue sky thinking” in thinking about the appropriate economic model for India. “This is reflected in the sky blue cover of the Survey,” he said.
12:22 pm: Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, who prepared the Economic Survey, said the theme of report is to enable shifting gears to accelerate and sustain a real GDP growth rate of 8% and thereby achieve the vision of making India a $5 trillion economy.
12:20 pm: “Real people respond to context rather than narrow “rational” calculations. #EcoSurvey2019 argues that nudging behaviour change is simplest way to change gender equations, business culture, sanitation culture, health culture and so on,” CEO Subramanian said in a tweet.
12:18 pm: The Economic Survey said India continues to be the fastest growing major economy in the world, even though the world output growth falling to 3.6% in 2018 from 3.8% in 2017. “Growth rate of world output is projected to fall further to 3.3% in 2019 as growth of both advanced and emerging and developing economies are expected to decline,” it saids.
12:17 pm: The survey highlights the immense potential of data of societal interest, says data should be “of the people, by the people, for the people”.
12:16 pm: The Economic Survey has projected 283.4 million tones of foodgrains production for 2018-19.
12:15 pm: “The current account deficit to GDP was higher in 2018-19 as compared to 2017-18, primarily due to higher oil prices, which were about $14/barrel higher in 2018-19 vis-à-vis the previous year. However, the CAD started to narrow in the third quarter of the year,” the Economic Survey 2019 said.
12:12 pm: The Economic Survey provisionally estimates 2.9% growth rate for the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.
12:10 pm: “Indian MSMEs need to be freed from shackles that convert them into dwarfs. MSMEs need to be seen as a source of innovation, growth and job creation,” Subramanian said.
12:09 pm: Economic Survey has been tabled in the Lok Sabha.
12:07 am: Krishnamurthy Subramanian said in an unpredictable world, policymaking needs clear vision, strategic blueprint, tactical tools for constant recalibration based on real time data. “Data must be created as a public good of the people, by the people, for the people,” he said on Twitter.
12:06 am: “Looking beyond the economics of equilibrium, Survey makes case for investment-driven “virtuous cycle” to sustain growth at 8%. Investment the “key driver” of simultaneous growth in demand, jobs, exports & productivity,” CEA Subramanian.
12:03 am: The upside and downside risks to growth are evenly balanced, with monsoon rainfall seen tipping the scales, the Economic Survey said.
11:56 am: Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian told ANI: “Our team has put in a lot of effort with a lot of dedication. I hope results are good, and we are able to contribute to the ideas for the economy. I hope the almighty blesses us.”
11:51 am: To become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, India need to sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%.
11:49 am: Narrowing in bad-loans ratio is seen helping boost the capital expenditure cycle: Bloomberg
11:44 am: General fiscal deficit seen at 5.8% in FY19 against 6.4% in FY18: ANI
11:44 am: Downside risks to the Indian economy include weaker exports growth and a spillover of the stress in shadow banking sector to this year.
11:42 am: Economic Survey 18-19: Oil prices expected to decline in 2019-20.
11:41 am: The economic survey says India will face a challenge on the fiscal front following an economic slowdown impacting tax collections amid rising state expenditure on the farm sector.
11:39: Economic Survey says government policies expected to further lift restrictions on FDI inflows – sources: Reuters
11:38 am: The survey said rebound in consumption is tied to a recovery in farm sector growth, which in turn depends on rainfall.
11:37 am: “The political stability in the country should push the animal spirits of the economy, while the higher capacity utilization and uptick in business expectations should increase investment activity,” said the Survey, authored by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian.
11:32 am: Economic Survey says rural wage growth that had bottomed out, started to rise since mid-2018 – sources: Reuters
11:28 am: Economic Survey says slow growth, GST, farm schemes to pose challenges on fiscal front – sources: Reuters
11:26 am: Economic Survey says 2019-20 GDP growth seen picking up on higher private investment and robust consumption – sources: Reuters
11:24 am: Economic Survey says lower global growth, increased uncertainty over trade tension may hit exports: Reuters
11:20 am: Economic survey sees investment rate picking up in FY2020 on higher credit growth and improved demand: sources – Reuters
11:20am: Economic survey sees 2019-20 GDP growth at 7 percent.
11:10 am: The Economic Survey is likely to flag headwinds that the economy might face in its pursuit to become the world’s fifth largest economy, according to PTI.
11:15 am: The survey is also likely to detail reforms road map needed to fulfil Modi’s goal of more than doubling the size of the economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024.