Markets close on Wednesday, OPEC meets — What to know in the week ahead

Image result for Markets close on Wednesday, OPEC meets — What to know in the week aheadAfter a busy week with market-moving speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Rich Clarida and the start of the highly-anticipated G-20 summit in Argentina, next week is also gearing up to be packed with key events. Note, that in memory of President George H.W. Bush, all of the major markets will be closed on Wednesday, December 5.

Saturday’s working dinner between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires was a “highly successful meeting,” according to a statement released by the White House. President Trump has agreed to leave the U.S. tariffs on on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at 10% effective January 1, 2019. The two leaders have agreed to work toward structural tech negotiations for the next 90 days. If at the end of those 90 days, no meaningful negotiations transpire, the tariffs will increase to 25%.

“This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honor to be working with President Xi,” Trump said.

While it was originally scheduled for Powell to testify before the Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook on Wednesday, it is uncertain whether or not the hearing will be rescheduled due to National Day of Mourning.

The Fed’s Beige Book is also scheduled to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

While it is still widely expected that the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting Dec. 18 to 19, Deutsche Bank wrote to clients that Powell’a and Clarida’s speeches last week may have marked a shift in the central bank’s tone for the future. The speeches “by the FOMC’s leadership had the potential to mark a turning point in the Fed’s narrative about its tightening cycle. While we view Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida’s comments as raising the risk of a Fed pause as early as the first half of 2019, we do not believe their comments undermine the pre-existing Fed narrative that monetary policy should be returned to a neutral stance.”

Crude oil (CL=F) has been getting pummeled. After falling below $50 a barrel this week, the commodity just posted its worst month in a decade as global supply concerns continue to weigh on prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna on Thursday. Because of oil’s recent weakness, the meeting between OPEC and its main partner Russia will be an extremely important meeting.

“The next OPEC meeting will likely be closely monitored by markets given recent oil price movements (Brent and WTI decreased 30% since early October). While it is was earlier believed that Saudi Arabia would agree to cut production, recent statements suggest that may not be the case unless other oil producers also cut output,” Barclays wrote in a note.

Economic calendar

As December begins, the jobs number on Friday is expected to show that the economy added 200,000 jobs in November versus the blowout 250,000 jobs added in October, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is expected to remain the same as the prior month at 3.7%.

According to Wells Fargo, “It is worth a reminder that one month of data does not make a trend, and that is particularly true when it comes to the jumpy and heavily revised payroll numbers. That makes it unlikely in our view that even a large downside miss would lead the Fed to hold off on a rate hike in December. If, however, the next couple of months’ jobs numbers show the trend in hiring is slowing, that could put the FOMC on a more gradual upward path in 2019. An upside surprise to payrolls or wages in November would point to the FOMC being likely to raise rates more than markets currently have priced in for 2019.”

Monday: U.S. manufacturing PMI, November (55.4 expected, 55.4 prior); Construction spending month-on-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.0% prior); ISM manufacturing, November (57.6 expected, 57.7 prior)
Tuesday: N/A
Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications, week ending November 30 (5.5% prior); ADP employment change, November (195,000 expected, 227,000 prior); Markit U.S. services PMI, November (54.4 expected, 54.4 prior); Markit U.S. composite PMI, November (54.4 prior); ISM non-manufacturing index, November (59.1 expected; 60.3 prior)
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ending December 1 (225,000 expected; 234,000 prior); Continuing claims, week ending November 24 (1.71 million prior); Factory orders, October (-2.0% expected, 0.7% prior); Durable goods orders, October (-4.4% prior)
Friday: Nonfarm payrolls, November (200,000 expected; 250,000 prior); Unemployment rate, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% prior); Wholesale inventories month-on-month, October (0.7% expected, 0.7% prior); University of Michigan sentiment, December (97.0 expected; 97.5 prior)


Marriott breach: Here’s the risk of a compromised passport number

Unrecognizable traveler checks in at the airport by using a self serve kiosk.

asiseeit | E+ | Getty Images
Unrecognizable traveler checks in at the airport by using a self serve kiosk.

A compromised passport number could be your ticket to identity theft woes.

Marriott International announced Friday that hackers had accessed the reservation database for its Starwood Hotels brand, compromising data for 500 million guests.

For 327 million of those affected consumers, the hotelier said, the information compromised “includes some combination of” data points including name, mailing address, phone number, email address, passport number and date of birth. Some of those guests may also have had their payment card information compromised.

“For the remaining guests [in that 500 million total], the information was limited to name and sometimes other data such as mailing address, email address or other information,” they said.

Experts say the potential for stolen passport numbers makes it more important for affected travelers to keep an eye on their accounts and take steps to protect themselves. (See tips below.)


‘The biggest challenge is overcoming people’s apathy’: Inside Simple’s marketing strategy

Simple is re-introducing itself through an ad campaign its been running on billboards and subway ads in various U.S. cities.

The ads pair everyday concepts most familiar and tangible to the seven-year-old neobank’s target millennial customer base, like binge watching and sweatpants, to convey how enjoyable and sensible its own offering — banking and budgeting, the latter of which major banking institutions are only now building into their experiences — can and should be. The company also wants to show it’s not “just an anonymous organization that doesn’t have a point of view,” said Valarie Hamm Carlson, Simple’s vp of brand. It’s a group of people that share the view of everyday consumers that banking shouldn’t be complicated.

“Every once in a while we need to jump back out there and say, ‘here’s who we are and if you don’t know us we we want introduce ourselves’ so people get a sense of our personality,” Carlson said. “Ideally we want that to come from the product but it’s always good to have a little bit of air cover and we haven’t done a lot of that in the past.”


Direct tax collection rises 19.5% to Rs7.44 trillion in Apr-Feb FY18

The gross tax collections, before adjusting for refunds, rose 14.5% to Rs8.83 trillion during the 11-month period of the current financial year. Photo: Mint

The gross tax collections, before adjusting for refunds, rose 14.5% to Rs8.83 trillion during the 11-month period of the current financial year. Photo: Mint

New Delhi: The direct tax collection has risen 19.5% to Rs7.44 trillion in the April-February period of the current fiscal, buoyed by a strong pick up in corporate tax.

The net direct tax collection represents 74.3% of the Rs10.05 trillion as per the revised estimates given in Union Budget 2018-19, presented in Parliament last month.

“The provisional figures of direct tax collections up to February, 2018 show that net collections are at Rs7.44 trillion which is 19.5% higher than the net collections for the corresponding period of last year,” a finance ministry statement said.

The gross collections, before adjusting for refunds, rose 14.5% to Rs8.83 trillion during 11 month period of the current financial year. Refunds amounting to Rs1.39 trillion have been issued till February. The growth rate for net corporate tax collections stood at 19.7% while for personal income tax is 18.6%.


Wall Street bull Tony Dwyer lists 3 reasons why it’s the wrong time to get bearish

One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls: Stick with stocksEven if the market sell-off worsens, one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls says now is not the time to turn negative.

Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer considers it his most important investment advice in this wild market.

“I’ve been one of the biggest bulls during throughout this entire cycle,” he said last week on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” “I’m going to remain that way until you invert the yield curve, shut down credit and the Fed takes us into recession. We are still just not there yet.”

Yet, he did see trouble ahead earlier this year. Dwyer began warning investors in July that market conditions were pointing to a correction. It’s a prediction he intensified this fall as the market was surging to all-time highs.

By early October, Dwyer saw signs the rally was cracking, and he became one of the Street’s first strategists to warn investors that a correction was underway.

“Corrections happen when there’s excessive optimism and low volatility,” he said Oct. 4 on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “Bullish newsletter writers again have been over 60 percent. That’s just too much. There’s too many people that are saying pro-U.S.”

Those comments were made on a day when the S&P 500 closed at 2,901.61. Since then, the index has dropped 9.7 percent. The S&P is now down 1.54 percent this year and more than 10 percent from its intraday record high hit on Sept. 21.

“This has been one of the nastiest corrections that we’ve seen just in terms of how sharp the decline has been,” he said. “We’re in the process of retesting those lows.”

His S&P year-end target was 3,200 until Oct. 26, when he downgraded it to a range of 2,900 to 2,950. Now, he believes the index will hit 3,200 early next year. That’s still roughly a 20 percent leap from current levels.

However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any more setbacks.

“I’m not saying that every tick from here is going to be higher,” Dwyer said, adding that historical trends indicate investors should be able to recapture their losses relatively quickly.